Elections continue to be the flashpoint of Pakistani politics these days, with electoral candidates trying hard to gain popular support, civil and military bureaucracies making sure the administrative and security dynamics stay under control, and the public having mixed sentiments regarding the results. However, amidst this extremely important and widely anticipated democratic procedure, the largest and most complex province of the country, Balochistan, faces hefty security challenges, as exemplified by today’s terrorist attacks in Pashin and Qilla Saif Ullah. The first attack took place in Pashin outside the office of Asfandyar Kakar, an independent candidate, and claimed 17 innocent lives. Whereas the second attack was orchestrated outside the office of JuI in Qilla Saif Ullah, martyring 10 citizens. Similarly, the combined number of critically injured individuals reached 42. This alarming state of affairs one day prior to the elections points out the fact that the insurgent forces residing in the province and its adjacent territories are not only not in favour of a smooth democratic process but also want an anarchic environment to persist in the province.
At present, many insurgent groups are operating in Balochistan, but the attack on JuI’s office points to the probability that local Daesh-affiliated terrorist factions, which include ISIS, ISKP, and ISPP, are involved in this endeavor. While this claim might seem like a sweeping statement, the historical data demonstrates that whenever religious political parties are targeted in Balochistan or KPK, it is claimed by Daesh or its associated splinters. A recent example in this regard is Hafiz Hamd Ullah of JuI, who was attacked by Daesh in September last year while he was en route to Kalat.
This is inherently due to the ideological differences between these insurgent groups and the religious political parties, whereby the former refute the idea of democracy while the latter adhere to it. In short, groups like Daesh (ISIS, ISKP, and ISPP) are hardcore conservative Islamists who exploit religion to wage war against western ideals. They are driven by power and adhere to absolute convictions, rendering them unreceptive to new ideas, especially those originating from the West. In the light of this context, it becomes apparent why Daesh targets JuI, a party that actively supports democracy and contests elections at every level of governance, whereas Daesh (ISIS, ISKP, ISPP) considers democracy illegitimate and incompatible with Islam.
Apart from this difference in ideologies, there exist other differences as well, which serve as substantial evidence suggesting Daesh’s involvement in the attacks in question. For instance, JuI has remained quite critical of violent religious extremist organisations like ISIS, ISKP, and ISPP. This makes Daesh a natural threat to JuI.
Meanwhile, the Islamic State (IS) has established a presence within Balochistan’s borders. The group poses a severe threat to both civilians and political leaders, particularly the leaders of religious political parties like JUI. The group’s actions in Balochistan, Pakistan, have received less attention than the alleged threat they pose in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the Western areas. However, the attack that occurred in Bajour KPK on July 30th, 2023, followed by the blast in Mastung, and now two consecutive blasts in Pashin and Qila Saifullah, serves as evidence that the group also poses a significant and deadly threat to the civilian population and the religious political parties within Balochistan.
Moreover, the Afghan factor is also pertinent to remember in light of the rise of terrorist activities in Balochistan and KPK, especially when elections are approaching. Both provinces are in close geographical proximity to Afghanistan, which gives an edge to religious extremist groups to infiltrate the rough adjoining terrain of Pakistan. Hence, the 73 percent increase in terrorist activities in Pakistan during the last few months of 2023 can be attributed to the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan, as they have not fully complied with their obligations under the Doha agreement to prevent international terrorist organisations from using Afghan territory as a safe haven against any state.
Apart from this, ISKP faces substantial pressure from the security apparatus in Balochistan, which is why it is less inclined or less capable of targeting military installations. On the other hand, it also means that civilian areas and political figures are more prone and vulnerable to ISKP’s attacks at present and in the near future as well.
While the terrorist attacks in Balochistan and KPK in the wake of elections have sent shockwaves among the public and have tried to dismantle the security fabric of the provinces, it is essential to note that Pakistan has a history of successfully organizing and conducting general elections despite terrorist threats. Whether it was the general elections of 2008, 2014, or 2018, political parties demonstrated resilience and resumed their electoral campaigns despite countless threats from extremist elements.
It is true that these attacks have the potential to demoralize some political actors; however, it is equally important to understand that most political parties in Pakistan have developed the resilience and adaptability necessary to operate effectively under challenging conditions. Moreover, the people of Balochistan, who recently witnessed the terrorist endeavors of the BLA and other Baloch sub-ethno-nationalist groups in various parts of the province, particularly Mach, have shown their interest in the electoral campaigns and have set aside the intimidating tactics of these sub-ethno-nationalist groups. This shows that the people uphold the democratic processes in Balochistan. However, the question arises: despite the threats from religious fundamental groups and Baloch separatist militant organizations, what will be the voter turnout?
