On the eve of 16th January 2024, the IRGC aerospace forces unilaterally launched missiles and UCAV/Kamakazi inside Pakistan’s largest province, Balochistan, specifically targeting district Panjgur. As per the official statements from Iran, the attack was intended to target Jaish-al-Adal hideouts inside Pakistan and to avenge the killing of 12 NAJA/police officers, who were killed during an attack on a police station in Rask city, in Sistan-o-Baluchestan province of Iran, in December 2023.
Jaish-al-Adal is a splinter or breakaway faction of Jundulllah, or JuA, which is fighting for greater autonomy and rights for the people of Sistan-o-Baluchestan. 90% of the population of Sistan-o-Baluchestan is Baloch, following the Sunni school of thought. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the IRGC, commonly known as revolutionary guards or Pasdaran-i-Inqalab, conducted a harsh repressive campaign against the Sunni population residing in peripheral areas of Iran that resulted in arm rebellion in the Sunni majority areas of Sistan-o-Baluchestan, Kuhuzestan (sunni Arab), Kurdistan, Golistan, Kermanshah, and East and West Azerbaijan province’s.
Heavyhandedness and harsh punitive action against the Sunni population and liberal political parties (the National Council of Resistance of Iran, headed by Maryam Rajavi) gave rise to Sunni, liberal, and national militant groups across Iran.
JuA and Ansar Al Furqan are the two major Sunni militant groups operating in porous border areas of Iran and Pakistan. JuA conducted high-profile attacks inside Iran and enjoyed popular support from the Iranian Baloch population.
The attack targeting the alleged JuA group hideouts in Pakistan will encourage Pakistan to launch similar attacks on anti-Pakistan Baloch militant groups (BLF, BRAS, BLA, BRG, and BNA) operating in Iran’s Sistan-o-Baluchestan, South Khurasan, and Mazandran provinces.
Pakistan and Iran should work together at a strategic level to resolve the issue of militancy on both sides, as the Baloch militant groups operating in Pakistan are Sunni nationalist groups fighting for a greater Balochistan that incorporates Pakistani Balochistan, Iranian Sistan-o-Baluchestan, and parts of Kandahar, Helmand, and Nimroz provinces of Balochistan.
The possibility of alliances between the Baloch militant groups in Pakistan and Iran may create strategic issues for both countries in the future. Although the chances of such an alliance seem rare due to ideological differences, the alleged recent alliances between the Baloch Liberation Army (Acho faction) and the TTP have raised the possibility of alliances between Pakistani and Iranian Baloch.
Pakistan and Iran should resolve the issue of Baloch militancy on a diplomatic level, as it will bring much-needed peace for Iran to counter Israel and other Sunni militant groups across Iran. Moreover, it will also help Pakistan address the much-needed issues of amnesty, compensation, and militancy in its largest province.
